| Player Analysis for Spring of 1908 in describe |
Army Bulgaria -> Constantinople
cut potential support of a move into smy.
Fleet Aegean Sea -> Smyrna
AI has a 50/50 shot at smy or con this move, assuming Italy comes
through with eas supporting this move.
Army Munich HOLD
Army Silesia SUPPORT Army Munich
Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Munich
The German disbands left 3 German units bordering mun. The
disbands make it look like G has become E's vassel and nothing
diplomaticaly indicated this wasn't true. So, I assume that G will be
concentrating on attacking me and ignoring E.
Army Vienna -> Galacia
Army Rumania -> Galacia
R sent me press basically saying that he was going to choose
between allying with me or or E soon. The worried me enough I decided to
gaurd against a Russina move into gal.
Turkey
No communication
Russia
He agreed to allow me to hold onto rum. I'm trying to get him to
move armies away from my, by putting units in Scandinavia. I argued that
he needed to maintain a defensive presence in the north against E.
He has said he will make a choice between allying with me or E.
So, I argued that the tactics dictated he should prefer an alliance with
me, since EI is likely to occur. I also argued that while my record this
game is not perfect, E has been much more treacherous than I so far.
Italy
I'm worried that he's too willing to settle into a stalemate
position against E, then after finishing of T attack me. But for now, I
will work with him to eliminate T.
Germany
I tried to be contrite about stabbing him, hopping to keep him
from just going for revenge against me. His disbands favored the English
though, so I worry that he's become E's servent. Plus, my press to him
seemed to just irritate him and make things worse.
France
Now that E is out of the med, I think the chances are high that he
will be eliminated by Italy. I suggested to him the possibility of trying
to get an Italian army into France by passing through mar in the spr and
then into bur in the fall. I'm hoping to keep Italy interested in
fighting E and not just settle for a stalemate position.
F said he passed this idea along to Italy, but I don't know if
Italy will go for it.
England
He still wants me to attack Italy, rather then fight R. He has
left the door open to the possibility of him attack R after G is gone, but
I fear that will occur as a IE vs AR war, which I don't want to happen. I
may have to attack Italy and risk England getting a solo by breaking into
the med in order to avoid IE vs AR.
Things got a little hairy this turn, because Russia didn't show
up for a long time and I thought he would be going abandoned. That would
be bad, because a new Russian might not be as friendly to English
interests as the current one. Thankfully, Tsar Nicholas showed up,
albeit a little late, and things should be fine.
Last year was disappointing, as the AI alliance - which I've been
trying to lessen - had a period of resurgence, each nation gaining a
build. One at my expense, no less. Strategically, I think my best
chance of a win is still through the Mediterranean, but to do that I need
AI to go into decline. My other victory option isn't really an option -
attacking Russia would certainly get me St. Pete, but it's hard to see
much else. An attack on Russia would enable Austria to make gains in the
East, and soon the AI alliance would be too strong to deal with. End
result, a three-way draw of EIA. I don't mind draws that much, but I
haven't given up hope of a solo; even in a draw, however, I don't want
Austria in the result. Italy makes a feasible partner in a three-way of
EIR, but Austria is deadweight.
For this turn, therefore, I think I succeeded in putting a target
on Austria's head. Italy didn't really seem interested in stabbing his
ally (it's also significant that he's in no position to do so), and so my
anti-Austrian device will be the Russo-Turkish forces.
Diplomatically:
Russia: Tried for a long time to get in touch with him and when
he finally showed up, he and I quickly worked things out. I told him,
truthfully, that Austria wanted me to attack him and explained why I
didn't want to. I then suggested a set of RT moves that would get
Russia into Rumania. He has agreed to these moves - with the exception
of possibly convoying his A Nwy to Berlin in the Fall - and so I'm
hopeful that RT will again become an item. Once I mentioned Austria's
interest in a Russian attack, it wasn't too hard to persuade R to rejoin
with Turkey. Come to think of it, I have no idea why Russia was
anti-Turkish last turn. This one should be better.
Austria: I'm being very two-faced with Austria. I'm playing
nice to his face, so that he doesn't get too aggressive in Germany, while
I'm inviting all of GIRT to attack him. He suggested that I attack
Russia, to which I replied that I was in no position to do so. I
suggested that he stab Italy, to which he replied that doing so would
only help my efforts in the Med and that wasn't his cup of tea. Austria
is a very smart player, but a little bit conservative. Such players tend
to make a fluid game (which I like) much more stable, and since I
don't want stability, I want to weaken him as much as possible. Which is
where RT comes in.
Turkey: I wrote a joint message to RT detailing a set of moves
that would get Russia into Rumania. This new Turk immediately agreed -
he's very nice - and that should work out well. Hopefully he'll stay at
three centres this year, and I have a crazy move of my own that ought to
help him quite a bit.
Italy: Didn't really say too much to Italy, but I did say that
his capture of Spain was no big deal at first. He found this to be
positive, and he also realized that I could block him into the Med
forever. He has no interest or capability of attacking Austria. At the
end of the turn, I pointed out that since I had nothing else to do with
my western fleets, I might as well keep him busy. I'll explain this when
I get to my moves.
Germany: His removals suggest that he isn't solely anti-English,
and so I offered support of any of his armies into Munich. He declined,
saying that he couldn't accept any support of an enemy, but he said that
he appreciated my play up to this point. If I had to bet, I'd bet on him
attacking Munich, and so that's why I'm satisfied to leave Germany alone for
right now. It's just as well that he doesn't take my support into
Munich, as that would make relations difficult with Austria.
France: I pointed out that an Italian attack on Marseilles is
imminent - which I partly believe, and asked him for help into Spain. He
declined this aid and will seemingly side with Italy again. When the
deadline initially passed, his move was already in, and so I'd bet that
Italy got him to support with A Mar S Italian F Spa(sc). A very big bet,
as you'll see below.
Tactically:
I'm making a big big big gamble this turn, and if it fails,
things could get very bad for the English. I have decided to leave the
Mid Atlantic unguarded, leaving a possibility of Italy slipping into the
MAt and opening up the Atlantic theatre that I've successfully closed.
However, I'm pretty secure in the gamble. Like I said above, I'm
pretty sure that France is supporting Italy in place in Spain. Also, by
ordering F Spa(sc)-MAt, Italy loses Spain if I order F MAt S F
Por-Spa(sc). A two-unit attack is so obvious that I think it extremely
unlikely that Italy will do anything else but stay in place. So that's
why I think I'll get away with it, but if he slips into the MAt, I've got
about fifty eggs on my face.
So...
F MidAtlantic-North Africa: Huh?, you ask. Well, there's only
one reason I'm doing this move - to prevent Italy from convoying A Tunis
to Turkey in the Fall. With an English fleet in North Africa, he won't
be able to convoy that army without risking Tunis. This will enable
Turkey to be more effective in helping Russia fight Austria and Italy in
the East. What a good ally I am, eh?
F Portugal Holds: I flirted with the idea of moving to Spain
with this unit, but the only possible thing that could do is dislodge the
Italian fleet which could then retreat to MAt. (If France changed his
mind, without telling me, and supported such a move, that's how this
could happen.) Moving to MAt leaves Portugal open for the Fall, which is
something I don't think I need to deal with, so I'll just stay in place.
A Brest-Gascony: This is a positional move. My bet is that FIG
all think that this army is going to Paris, and so I think this move will
succeed. France isn't moving to Gascony, for sure, and Germany will
either attack Munich or move to Paris with A Bur. When I'm in Gascony
come Fall, I have a lot of options - attack Paris, help an attack on
Spain, move to Burgundy. So it's a good positional move that enables me
to create more opportunities than the opponents have pieces to cover.
A Lon-Eng-Bre, F Eng C A Lon-Bre: I decided on Brest as the
landing point of this army, because it keeps Brest secure from any
possible German move toward Paris/Brest, and it also backs up my move of
A Bre-Gas. I'm more interested in getting a firm hold on France right
now than I am on getting firm control of Germany, and this move helps the
cause by putting significant pressure on Paris.
F Baltic S A Kiel: Pretty simple, as I want to hold onto Kiel at
the moment and I also want to stay in place in the Baltic.
A Den-Nth-Hol, F Nth C A Den-Hol: I could do one of two things
with A Den - support Kiel or put it somewhere useful. I don't think
supporting Kiel is necessary, as Germany resents Austria as much as he
resents me, and so Austro-German cooperation against me is not likely.
(It's also the only way they can capture Kiel, since I'm defending with
two units.) So I'll go with the other option, which is putting A Den
somewhere useful. I choose Holland over Belgium because it stands a
better chance of succeeding. I can imagine Germany moving one unit to
Belgium, in which case a convoy there would bounce. His moving to
Holland is perhaps less likely, and even so I'll have support for a
convoy there. In Holland come Fall, I have a good chance of getting Belgium.
A Kiel S A Den-Hol: Support for the move above, and another
reason why Holland is a better choice than Belgium.
Should be an intriguing turn. It's been a good game thus far.
1908 and no eliminations although I think two nations (France and
Germany) will be leaving in the next few turns. Germany is the more
likely candidate in my opinion.
Lord Sheringham
----------------------------------------------------
Addition to England's Spring 1908 Analysis:
After I sent my first analysis in, I talked some more with Russia
as he finally got around to writing.
He told me that he had thought about it some more, and that he
didn't want to attack Austria. I think his reasons are that he doesn't
know this Turkish player and that he trusts Austria enough to help him
against Turkey.
Personally, I think it's an awful idea, but no amount of my
attempts to persuade Russia otherwise has had an effect. A Russian
attack on Turkey will only make things easier for AI, and my guess is
that AI will attack Russia in the near future, once their forces are into
Turkey. End result, and I'd bet a lot on this: an EAI draw. I could
live with this, since I'd be in the draw, but of course I'm still looking
for the solo and, failing that, a draw with Austria out of the picture.
Lord Sheringham
No analysis submitted
No analysis submitted
No analysis submitted
No analysis submitted
The first thing I do when taking over an abandoned power is do a recent history (the last few years), run the output through Mapit, and look at the results. From this, I can see who have been working together over the past few years and who have been fighting each other. For example, the fact that Austria and Italy were teaming up to take Smyrna last year bothers me. Austria and Russia also have a history of cooperation. If all three were to use their units in the area to attack me, I would have no choice but to lose at least one supply center. I have to try and buy some time through diplomacy. ---------------------------------------- My goal with this set of orders is simply to stay alive. A Syr - Smy This move is an attempt to secure a home center that the former Turk so rudely left open. A Con s A Syr - Smy I don't expect this province to not get attacked, so giving support is kind of pointless. However, I hate to have an army hold without doing anything, so I have it support instead. A Ank s A Con This is purely a hunch on my part. Since the AI alliance was unsucessful in trying to get Smyrna last turn, I'm hoping that Austria will try for Constantinople this turn. I'm trying to anticipate their moves, but if I lose, I lose big! No grand strategies for now, I'm just trying to stay alive. Hopefully, I can get the Russians on my side.