Broadcast message from W-Por in 'fools':
Game: FOOLS, USEF Judge.
Variant: Chaos, Gunboat, NoPress.
Outcome: W-POR win in 1914.
Power: W-POR, since start.
I have long prepared for Fools, and consider it my greatest achievement.
My preparation involved several aspects. First, I tried to get into as many Chaos games as I could - even as a replacement player. There aren't a great many chaos games, so this wasn't a difficult undertaking. Once in those Chaos games, try to study every aspect of the game with an eye as to how it might change in a NoPress game. Second, I moderated 3 games of the NoPress Pure variant - which I considered to be the "baby" version of NoPress Chaos. Again, the objective was to learn lessons. Third, join some NoPress games so as to learn the mechanics.
From the Chaos games I joined, I learned that contrary to my expectations, the game is played much more individualistically than the mega-alliances I envisioned. Sure, player would cooperate in large alliances, but they never lose sight of their selfish "provincial" objectives.
From the NoPress Pure games I moderated I learned that the players who are most communicative won. (By communication I mean supports and convoys provided to other powers more as a way of sending a message than as an actual useful order. Orders which are certain to be VOID are very often utilized for "communication" purposes). I also learned that demoralization can be a very potent weapon. A power can be demoralized out of fighting and give up all-too-easily. Not everyone demoralizes, but it can be a great boon to an aggressor if some of his victims do. Trying to gear one's play to maximally instigate demoralizations, and take advantage of them when they happen, is a promising strategy.
From the (other) NoPress games I learned that communication is perhaps over-rated. Players ignore direct attempt at communication as often as they take it into consideration; and very often, they can get the message even without any explicit communication. The cost of immobolizing a unit for communications sake is just too high. Ever more so, I learned that a very successful deception can be founded on deliberately-misleading communications. Ironic as it may sound, those who take communications much to heart, appear to be the easy prey. Another lesson I've learned from NoPress games is that there is a strong gang-on-the-one-who's-down mentality. Everyone wants to get their cut. No one wants to play the good Samaritan. The poor fella who is down can't even bargain for his life. Although, I did wonder how would that be played out in a NoPress game, where (early on) "ganging up" on someone is simply taking his lone center. Yet another lesson I learned from NoPress play is that the "dash-for-victory", starts much earlier. The "dash-for-victory", is that time when a player has 14+ SCs (or so) and decides to violate every treaty and understanding ever reached in the hope of reaching 18 centers before the rest of the players (who always have more centers between themselves than the dasher) get their act together and manage to form an effective opposition. It takes so much longer to form an effective defensive barrier when press isn't allowed. Each defender must individually reach the decision that the time for selfless cooperation has arrived (to "stop the leader"). Then the moves which need coordination, often require guesses as to whom should move, who should support?, and support what? It often takes several turns to get the coordination in sync. All these extra delays allow the "dash" to begin so much earlier.
It was my intention to moderate a NoPress Chaos game myself before trying to play in one - as a further learning experience. However, I was pre-empted. Larry started a NoPress Chaos game before I had a chance to execute the final learning stage. Considering that Chaos games in general don't start every day (since 34 players must assemble to get a game going; and often by the time they all assemble, some already have to leave, and also; with 34 players, rarely is there a turn which isn't executed late, etc.), and that NoPress chaos are even more rare, my hand was very much forced. Insisting that I moderate such a game before I play would have meant I had to wait for FOOLS to finish, then start my own game, carry it through to conclusion, and then hope that yet a third game would form to allow me to play. This could easily prove a 2-3 years affair. So, I decided to join FOOLS.
Larry meant the game to be an April's Fools joke. Figuring that no one could possibly play such a "wacky" variant seriously. I didn't see it that way. I asked Larry to remove the NMR provision of the game so as to allow it to be taken seriously by those who would like to. Larry wasn't to sure about NMR himself, and agreed to remove it. I was in.
This is going to be a carefully played game, I kept repeating to myself. No "shoots from the hip". Every action must be taken after careful thoughts and due considerations. I should act as if I'm trying to justify every act in front of a skeptical audiance.
Ven Nap Edi Lvp Par Por Bel Mun Ber Swe Stp Mos Con Smy Rum Ser Vie
Game Rom Tun Lon Bre Mar Spa Hol Kie Den Nor War Sev Ank Bul Gre Bud Tri
----
Avalon . . D D D . . . .
Everyone D D D D D . D D . . D
Zenith . . . . . . . W
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Neighbors: 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 4
"W" = Winner, "D" = Drawee, "." = Reached 3 or more SC at some point.
Characterized by number of neighbors, each player had initially:
| Number of Neighbors | Number of Powers With This Count | "D" + "W" | "." | "D" + "W" + "." | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | Percentage | Number | Percentage | Number | Percentage | ||
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 33% | 2 | 33% |
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 30% | 3 | 11% | 11 | 41% |
| 2 | 15 | 4 | 9% | 9 | 20% | 13 | 29% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 17% | 1 | 17% |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 33% | 1 | 33% |
| Total | 34 | 12 | 12% | 16 | 16% | 28 | 27% |
The trend is obvious. It is best to have exactly one neighbor. This makes sense. With one neighbor you can't be dislodged in S01, but you might get support and take a center yourself. Even if you are the one doing the supporting, you might gain an ally. Two is not quite as good. Three or more is dangerous. The statistics for zero are too small to be conclusive, other than that it is inferior to one.
All these statistics were collected for games with partial press. How would things change for NoPress? Well, first, I figured, there would be a dearth of fleets. The number of starting fleets in Zenith and Everyone were 14 each (I have no number for Avalon since I wasn't around when it started, and couldn't collect the information from the history files of the Washington judge after it was deactivated). However, with partial press, and alliances forming before the 1900 construction phase, I was sure many of those fleets were part of division-of-labor agreements. In a NoPress, every-man-for-himself (at least initially), game there is a strong disincentive to build fleets. The number one objective for every player must be the attaining of a second center. The only time a fleet is better than an army is if one wants to go through a body of water to that second center. This means that the Admiral would have to spend the Spring season NOT on top of a supply center (since there are no water supply centers!). This is highly undesirable if there is any other way. This expected dearth of fleet would seem to advantage "out-of-the-way" powers. Powers which are hard to reach via land.
Portugal seemed the power to put on top of the preference list. It was both a one-neighbor power, and poorly accessible by land. A few other powers with that characteristic rounded up my top-6 (I allowed the two zero-neighbored powers in, 6-TUN and P-LON, since I valued inaccessibility more than one-neighborness. In a partial press game, one-neighborness would presumably be more valuable since support against the neighbor may be arranged more easily). I figured it would be unlikely I'll need more than a handful of preferences - after all how many Chaos players submit preferences to begin with, and how come would have a preference so similar to my own that I'd be pushed down more than a handful of places on the list. Nevertheless, I wrote out the entire list. Thinking exactly what would I do if I got each, and how comfortable am I with it. The less comfortable, the lower on the list.
The final preference list was: WN6ITP1A9QBVD4UHC23K8GJS7XL0E5YRFZ.
I was fortunate enough to get W-POR.
When the builds were published, I was rather surprised. The number of fleets built, 13, was not (significantly) less than in the partial press game. However, they were built so differently. England - which usually get 3 fleets in a Chaos game - got only 1. The Black Sea coastline got 3.
I was surprised, but happy. In my region of the board there were very few fleets. 2-SPA, Q-MAR, D-BRE, P-LON, and N-LVP all built armies. The nearest fleets were 6-TUN, T-NAP, and B-BEL. All of them had much higher priority - even after they get their first growth. I wouldn't have to worry about a naval invasion for a long time. And, as long as I make sure I don't leave POR for anything but SPA, there will never be an overland invasion.
I've decided to play deceptive. I've ordered "POR convoy SPA-BRE". This is an illegal order, but one which the judge permits (although it would always be *void*). It would presumably suggest to 2-SPA that he move to GAS and I to MAO, whence I'll support him into BRE. In the fall, I could then take SPA with greater safety.
A stunt like this tends to be more treacherous than I would usually be willing to execute. It's one thing to simply attack someone - unprovoked - and take them out, or to take advantage of someone's troubles for my benefits, or even to attack someone who offered me support (instead of accepting it). In all these cases, I never "said" I'll ally with you. The *void* convoy I gave is as close to "promising" an alliance as one can have in a NoPress game. I was publicly asking a neighbor to take a risks as part of an alliance, and was instantly abusing it. This will mark me as a stabber, and very much shut off my ability to "talk" opponents into taking risks with me. However, the importance of getting a second unit early in a NoPress game just can't be over-stated. It is like gaining sight where everyone else is blind. The two units can support each other whereas two allied units can only guess what each is doing - even if they have complete confidence in each other's trustworthiness (which never happens, especially in a NoPress game). Any cost is justifiable for that second unit.
It worked. As it turned out, 2-SPA moved out of SPA already in the Spring - so I could have taken it. But the important thing is that he didn't return in the Fall - possibly thanks to the deception. I took SPA in 1901. I had my early unit. I was well on my way.
Things looked even brighter when I surveyed the rest of the board. Only 5 powers (including myself) gained a build. In this "few seeing amongst the many blinds" world, these early builders are likely to form the cores of growing empires, and the sources of my future opponents, as the "blinds" are killed off. This prediction proved very accurate. With one exception (E-BUD replaced Z-SER) these were exactly the 5 to make it (to 4 or more centers). The die has been cast. There will be very few additions to this select group of growers. I was in that group, and the group was smaller than I could possibly have hoped for.
The news was brighter than that. Of the growers, my position was the most secure - and hence easiest to move forward with. 3 of the 5 growers were in the midst of many other powers. These were C-BER, G-CON, and Z-SER (the sole casualty of the group). One other, X-ROM, was in a reasonably safe position, but with some headaches and no immediate prospects.
The news only got brighter when I focused on my immediate areas of concern. The three French countries - my obvious next objective - were all hostile to each other; and none of them had any good prospects. The English powers haven't made any progress. I considered that very important. The fact that there were two armies in England was amongst my blessings. As soon as the intra-English battles have been settled, the island is going to become a potent source of unpleasant fleets. In the Spring, the English units executed the "famed" Yorkshire Pudding move (all three units bounced in YOR. Considered a joke move in standard Diplomacy, but apparently a plausible move in NoPress Chaos). In the Fall, two of them started cornering the third, but the one being cornered was the FLEET! The nearest fleets have both moved away from me. B-BEL moved to the NTH, and 6-TUN moved to the ION. There were no fleets anywhere in sight.
The adjustment was also delightful. Three fleets were destroyed, and only two built; and they were built further away from me than where the destroyed fleet were.
I was doing great.
My next target was always going to be Q-MAR. With absolutely no threats, and with no one available or interested in helping Q-MAR, I had all the time in the world to execute a safe capture. It should take me 3 seasons if Q-MAR resists. For reasons I fail to understand, he didn't resist and I took him out in 1 year.
Other 1902 events were again cheerful, but not as much as the incredible 1901.
The number of "seeing" (powers with more than one unit) increased to 9. Of them, I was the only one with 3 units, and the only one with no threats whatsoever. Even X-ROM was being harassed (by 6-TUN) and in no position to head my way. I had gained the lead, and I haven't looked back since.
The French situation was continuing to be cheerful. V-PAR and D-BRE have, since the game begun, been attacking each other every turn. A situation from which they couldn't escape. Whomever stops first will lose.
England was getting ever more hilarious. The sole English fleet (I-EDI) was destroyed, but the power which took it, N-LVP, lost his home to P-LON. P-LON didn't get a build either. He lost his home to a fleet from B-BEL (reminding one of pre-Roman English history...). But B-BEL didn't get a build either. He lost his home to K-HOL. The bottom line is that, once again, England had 2 armies and one fleet; all controlled by three different 1-SC powers. Wonderful. the longer the English threat is delayed, the better prepared I will be to meet it.
The fleet count improved too, as another fleet was destroyed, and none (other than mine) was built.
At that time, I considered myself as a likely winner. I've confided with a local Diplomacy player that I already see myself winning FOOLS. I was going to begin my dash-for-victory right away. I'm not going to worry about getting too big and becoming a tempting target (the so called "early leader syndrome"). I'm just going to "dash".
This is extraordinary. I've observed above that in a NoPress game, one might want to start the "dash" from 11-13 SC instead of 14-15, but I never imagined that I'll make the strategic decision to start the dash from three!
The one thing I was going to allow to distract me was a decision to try and avoid the other seeing powers while there are still blinds to scoop up.
The French failed to unite in the face of my advancing forces, and I took BRE in only one year. Again, ahead of schedule. My spare MAR fleet was doing well in it's perimeter mission.
I was now at four units, and still no threats in the area. All the other seeing powers had some problems on their hands.
There has been no change in the England situation. I could begin to dream that England won't sort itself out at all before I could get around to forcibly suppress the island.
The only cloud on the horizon was the fact that 6-TUN gained a build. Obviously it's going to be a fleet. This will curtail my ability to exercise fishing expeditions in the Med, and potentially create a force that could approach my shores. I knew this had to be dealt with, but I wasn't quite ready yet.
The number of seeing powers remained at 9, with two of them at 3 (and myself at 4). The fleet count remained unchanged.
I had no difficulties overcoming interference from the B-BEL fleet in the English channel and use my 2 armies to take PAR.
Less expected, a "what the heck, I'll give it a try" play with my Med fleet worked. I did to 6-TUN exactly what I did to 2-SPA in 1901. I gave him a suggestive support in the Spring and took (one of his) home in the Fall. I couldn't believe he would fall for it, with my 2-SPA record and all, but he did. This was great, not only did I take a center, but I took it from a power I considered to be a mid-term concern. What's more, I was anchoring a "neighborly" relation with X-ROM - who has been nice enough to restrict his build to army - by frying his headache. X-ROM was greatful enough and - for as long as he could - has been "neighborly" with me too.
There was another, more long range, achievement in gaining TUN. I considered it the 18th center for my future victory. I will now be able to focus on taking the 17 centers West of the Barren Zone, and already have TUN for the 18th. Being the largest power in the West, and with a fully defended home, this was a feasible objective. Of course, I could make some pushes into the Med - probing attacks, perimeter defense, and fishing expeditions; but those won't be an integral part of my strategic plan, and will have to be sustained by their own growth. The only rule is that TUN and the perimeter must be defended before any adventures may take place.
Getting two builds was great news. But there was plenty of good news all around. The fleet count went down another notch, as two were destroyed (the harassing B-BEL and one of 6-TUN's) and only one built (other than by myself). The number of seeing powers was still at 9, with myself in the lead with 6 and 3 powers (C-BER, E-BUD, and G-CON) at 3.
The English situation was not only failing to develop, it was retrograding. P-LON took his home back (from B-BEL), and choose to build an ARMY. England now had *three* armies. It was clear that P-LON intended to expel the N-LVP army in EDI to gain the build that will give him the fleet he'll need to get off the island. However, I was now in position, to begin and interfere with that plan. I have been blessed, England would now never be a factor.
All in all, 1904 was a great year; as good as 1901.
6-TUN choose to suicide on me. To make sure that his suicide is indeed fatal to him, I had to make a move which X-ROM is likely to interpret as an attack on him. He blocked the attack, but "neighborliness" was seriously damaged. X-ROM built a fleet in NAP - replacing the dying 6-TUN one on my list of concerns.
More seriously, K-HOL - with 3 units, and C-BER - with 4; were beginning to cooperate to block my progress. Between them they had enough firepower to halt my land advance. Of course, I had no backthreats, and they did - at least a little - from (the still disorganized) Scandinavia.
The one bright spot was that my land defenses were now as solid as my naval defenses.
The number of seeing powers was still at 9. I was still at 6, but my two nearest rivals, C-BER and G-CON, were now at 4.
The fleet count stayed even with builds and two destroyed.
In England, P-LON knocked N-LVP out of I-EDI; as programmed. He didn't, however, gain any build from it. K-HOL - my enemy - did what I was unable to. He took LON, and made sure England couldn't build a fleet. (Too bad he got one :).
K-HOL went down from 3 to 1 (becoming "blind"), I went from 6 to 8.
In other news, X-ROM seems to have forgiven me and was heading East with his fleet. I was content to sit in TUN and not provoke X-ROM for as long as he would allow me.
More good news. G-CON has gained control of the Black Sea perimeter and was now in second place behind me with 6 centers. I considered that good news since G-CON is going to provide a lethal distraction for all the central powers, preventing them from coming to the aid of the Western powers I was about to savage. I wasn't too concerned with G-CON surpassing me. I had TUN, and I had the ability to defend it (although, the defense, at the time was not there; neither was the threat).
The manner in which I shall win was beginning to take shape. I've already savaged K-HOL. One fleet will keep P-LON in England unable to grow: whenever he gets two units to dislodge me from one of his centers, another fleet will take some other center. This will be done until I'm ready to systematically destroy P-LON and take the island. (wow, it's happening. England is never a factor!) Frontal fighting will have to be used to destroy C-BER, and a mop up operation for Scandinavia. After I took out C-BER, no amount of outside (i.e. from the East) help would save Scandinavia - since units can come through StP only one at the time, and only armies.
The fleet count went down another notch in 1906 with the destruction of the K-HOL fleet in LON. There were now only 8 fleets (beside mines), 4 in each sea; and none in a troubling place.
With some "blinding", the number of seeing powers went down to 7.
I built two armies to prepare for a frontal attack on C-BER in Germany.
Through a quirk, 4-SWE gained his first build and "sight". Great. C-BER progress through Scandinavia might be slowed.
The fleet count remained unchanged.
This was all I needed. Only extraordinary misfortune would stop me from winning. Even if everyone united against me, I should still be able to win. I was up to 11 units. I secured all of Germany. I still had TUN. England was still being "held in reserve" immobile with only armies and no way to gain a build. Scandinavia, mostly under C-BER control, was all that needed to be taken. My Diplomacy experience says that taking Scandinavia from the West is a straight forward exercise.
I had now shifted to a mode of extreme conservatism. I shall assume all players are now cooperating against me, and I shall assume they are all making lucky guesses. The game is mine. I won't let rashness and some bad luck take it away from me.
Fleet count stayed unchanged, but I built 3 fleets; I now had nearly half of all fleets (7 out of 15).
The endgame has begun.
I routinely took BER and LON, going to 13 centers.
4-SWE, continuing his quirk luck, managed to take refuge in LVP as his Scandinavian home was demolished. I liked it. Even though it was a fleet in my rear, it was on a short leash. It couldn't go anywhere without losing his sole center. I choose not to pay the required efforts to take it out, opting instead to use my forces in conservatively defending the frontiers.
On the German front, I made some safe moves Eastward. The intention was to slow down any potential advance toward my German holdings until I have a full fledged stalemate line available.
G-CON was crushing right through the R-MOS lines to get to me. It was obvious he was woefully too late. Well, what the heck, I would use the R-MOS refugees for the delay functions.
I didn't really need all that, but it covered me against some low-probabilities misfortunes.
Everything was going well.
I built two fleets gaining naval superiority over the the rest combined. Those fleets would be used to seal off the Med completely, even before any serious threat materialized. 1910 In 1910, E/X/G finally made a serious move to engage me. Too late. My defenses were all up and prepared. Germany and the Med weren't mathematically stalemated yet, but there was sufficient defenses to hold against any threat until a formal stalemate would be constructed.
4-SWE made some lucky guesses to stay alive. I didn't really need to take him out (early), but it would speed things up if I did.
The only place where things could go wrong was C-BER in Scandinavia. Had he chosen to play aggressively, and then made some good guessed, he might still give me troubles. C-BER didn't. He was content to sit and calmly await his fate as I was tightening the noose about him. In 1910, I took DEN from him.
C-BER disbanded a fleet, I built one.
I made a supported retreat into the formal stalemate line in Germany.
In the Med, I pushed forward - making sure I can always retreat to a stalemate line - in case I can hunt a center in Italy. Nothing was really expected to be gained from that offensive. Nothing was.
With the help of freed-up English units, I tightened the noose around Scandinavia even further.
After the Fall executed, I reached the point of a forced victory. I could assure no chance of losing any center or province as I build up my forces against Scandinavia. Eventually, I'll guess correctly and take some of the 3 centers I needed to win.
C-BER: I placed you in a very desperate position. Yet, this is no excuse for your lack of action. I was rather surprised to find that C-BER was played by a player I respect (Martin). For some time, you were the only one who could have stopped me, and you never even tried. You were often acting as "I'll be friendly. Please find your victory margin elsewhere". Well, sorry, C, you were SITTING on *MY* victory margin!
P-LON: I sure hope you thought carefully before building that second ARMY. Did you realize you were dooming yourself to never leave the island?
B/D: you two proved unable to break your skirmishes in face of my forces.
All in all, all players played a good game.
Dan Shoham
[email protected]
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