| Analysis for Fall of 1903 in gauntlet |
Dear Rick,
My main decision this season was what to order with the fleets. The options were (a) F(ION)-TYS, F(AEG)-ION, (b) F(ION)-Nap, F(AEG)-ION, (c) F(ION)-Tun, F(AEG)-ION. If Italy holds or orders to ION, the latter being the most likely move, then option (a) is best. If Italy orders to TYS (unlikely) then option (c) takes the center. However the order to Tun is a long shot and doesn't do anything for me if it fails. My option is probably not the best, but it's safe. I'm guaranteed to make steady progress over the next year-or-so.
What will Austria order with A(Tri)? It is very tempting to order support for IA(Pie)-Ven, there are no hard alliances in no-press gunboat and slowing my progress is good for Austria. If this were regular I could bring diplomatic pressure to bear on this point, but it isn't so I can't. Austria may be worried that I will order a supported attack on Serbia, in which case I would take Serbia if he supported the Italians. At this stage in the game I don't want to do anything that would alienate Austria, I want to concentrate on westwards expansion; no two-front war!
The Russian move to Lvn is difficult to understand, the only rational explanation being that Russia expected England to be in a position to make a supported attack on StP and wanted an uncutable on being able to outguess Austria. Although I would rather build a westwards unit this season I am going to have to build a unit to move into Armenia --- assuming that RA(Sev) doesn't retreat to Armenia --- I need to block Armenia to ensure that Austria doesn't get any ideas about a back-door entry.
With France collapsing so quickly I am slightly worried so I won't be able to secure Gibralter before England sails through. With Italy keeping F(Tun) it mak take me three seasons to capture Tun. At the moment it is fortunate that England is only building one and doesn't have any southern units except F(ENC). Hopefully he will not capture Breast this season and in any case he has to decide if he is going to stab Germany. An E/G war would be music to my ears. If E/G were to ally then they would have a good chance of being able to break across the main west-east stalemate line --- England could push fleets through Gibralter before I could reach it and Germany could push armies into Austria. In a no-press game this is unlikely. I don't have a palantir so I can not see too far into the future. If England doesn't stab Germany then I can see the possibility that this game will end in a dull four-way draw. Austria may be able to stab for Bul/Gre but his lack of fleet power would mean that anything would be suicide (unless Germany were to stab England at the same time, then it might be a race to 18). If I were to stab Austria I may find Germany rushing through into Russia and Austria. My best chance appears to be if England is slow in moving southwards and I am able to take control of the Med. If I were able to take 3 Iberian centers I might be in a positionn for a war against Austria. But that's a long way in the future and the picture is fuzzy.
Mark.
Dear Rick,
The main decision was to order in Ank. I need to push a unit into Armenia this Spring. This prevents Russia retreating there should Austria outguess him, and should Austria outguess him it denies Austria the backstab to Syria. In the long term I am obviously thinking about the possibility of attacking Austria via the orders F(XXX)-BLA and A(xxx)-Syr, the question is what is the best way of doing this.
I think option 2 is more sneaky. In option 1 Austria may wonder why I have built F(Con) as opposed to F(Smy). In option 2 Austria will assume I am going for a westwards convoy and miss the possibility of pushing the army into Arm. So two fleets this season. I had originally intended to move westwards towards the straits of Gibralter, but having looked at the position am seriously considering the stab on Austria this season. I'll explain my reasons in my next commentary (I hope you are keeping my comments to run as an EGS at the end of game?). Austria had a 100% of taking an Austrian center this season, but decided togo for the 50% option and got it wrong. I don't understand that. Russia has moved to Mos --- he should have ordered there last season.
Mark.