| Analysis for Spring of 1904 in gauntlet |
Dear Rick,
Apologies for the lateness of my orders. As usual I left sending the orders until the last moment, only to find myself being wined and dinned by captains of industry (well one, to be exact) on wednesday evening. I don't get invited out for meals at somebody else's expense very often...
When I looked at the position before the Winter adjudication I assumed that Italy would keep F(Tun) and disband A(Pie). I then decided that I would attack Austria with A(Rom)-Ven and A(Ven)-Tyr. After the Italian builds I decided not to attack him.
With correct play every game should finish in a draw, but I can see how most powers can win with poor play. Even with poor play I have never understood how Turkey can win, it's such a long way to the 18th center. With a strong England and a strong Germany I can't see any way of winning --- they sit on the stalemate line and even in a gunboat game they have plenty of time to sort out their orders.
I'm going to move westwards and see what happens. I can envisage this game petering out into a 4-way draw, depending upon what E/G do. There's a small chance that I might be able to break through Gibralter and onto the other side of the stalemate line, but it's very unlikely.
Mark.
Austria's paranoria and rampant anti-Turkish orders are understandable, he must have thought that I was intending F(Ank)-BLA to pressurise Rum in conjunction with A(Ven)-Tyr and A(Rom)-Ven. His defensive orders have given Russia breathing space, which is good --- although I have no intention at the moment of stabbing Austria I don't want hime gaining units with increased defensive possibilities. Hopefully he will note that I didn't make any anti-Austrian moves last season and return to a more reasonable position.
As I see it Austria only has two options. He either engages in anti-Turkish maneouvers or he takes a risk and orders northwards, if I don't stab him he will gain builds; however his lack of fleets means that he will never become the major partner in a AT alliance. At the moment my strategy remains to move west. However, if Austria continues with anti-T moves next season I will consider F(ION)-ADR and the stab. I'm not particularly keen on this, because the prospect of a E-G war opens up the possibility of breaking through into MAO.
The F-I position is interesting. They are both playing to occupy Spa and Por and in the absence of external factors this should reduce to a 50-50 guess for each player.
Mark