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What's the only neutral supply center that can be reached with equal force by two powers in fall of 1901? Sweden. The likely jumping off point for any type of early move against the Bear? Sweden. The launching pad for a Russian northern offensive? Sweden. What do Germany and Turkey have to talk about in 1901 besides idle chitchat? Sweden. So, should Germany bounce Russia in Sweden? Should he even open Fleet Kiel to Denmark? While not every country may care what happens, every country SHOULD. Naturally though, it will depend on the overall game situation. And since Diplomacy is, after all, about diplomacy, and it's unlikely that one would ever be able to simply use this article as the final say, the author will take a look at each country, and examine the various alliance structures that might impact how that power would want to influence the Kaiser. We'll start with Russia, and then move on to the other five powers before concluding with Germany. RUSSIA:Probably the easiest country to study. Generally, Russia would always want Germany to let him into Sweden. In fact, in pre-S1901 diplomacy, if Russia can get Germany to open Kie-Hol, then the Tsar doesn't have to worry about whether there will be a bounce, and count on at least one build. That could also free him up to do things like harass Austria, should he be so inclined (something most Germany's frown on) AUSTRIA:Like most countries, Austria can want this either way. Is the Dual Monarchy pro-Russia (AR, ART, AIR) or anti-Russia (AI or the uncommon AT)? One strategy worth mentioning is commonly referred to as the "Anschluss". The first I ever heard of it was in an article by Richard Sharp. While you can run an Anschluss many different ways (including Mun-Tyl in S01), the Sweden related part includes Germany telling Russia that he's opening Kie-Den, and will let the Bear into Sweden if and only if there is no War-Gal in Spring 1901. This can be a huge relief for Austria, and nearly every Austria (pro-Russia OR anti) should try to get Germany to agree to this. It also goes along with the conventional wisdom that Germany's success is inversely proportional to Austria taking a bath by 1902/3. Another scenario to consider is the early AT attack on Russia. Very often, this is combined with Austria encouraging Italy towards a Lepanto attack on Turkey, but an AT (while uncommon) is not unheard of. This works best if Turkey can sneak into Bla and Arm, and follow it up with supported attacks on Sev and Rum. If this is to be successful, it is IMPERATIVE that Germany deny Sweden. If Russia manages to take Sweden, he'll have four centers (Mos, War, Stp, Swe) and only three units (due to the destruction of F Rum). This allows him to build A War, and A War,A Mos S A Ukr is a stalemate until and unless someone gets an army into Silesia. On the other hand, if Germany bounces over Sweden, then Russia only has three centers and three units (one of which is a useless F Bot), and Russia takes an early bath. ENGLAND:In looking at the various countries, England seems to have the most reason to want Germany to bounce Russia in Sweden. There are only four basic alliance structures for England.
FRANCE:In general, the President wants Russia to succeed, since FR make excellent mid-game partners. Under EF, they may encourage a bounce for the same reasons as mentioned above with England. In an FG, Germany should be encouraged to let Russia into Sweden, so that he can provide pressure on Norway. Depending on the situation in the south, Russia may very well be happy to just take Swe and Nwy and leave the rest to the allies. One possible ploy, if England will be moving F Nth in fall (i.e. not convoying), is F Den-Nth, coupled with Kie-Den and Ruh-Hol for two builds. Sets up very nicely for 1902/3. ITALY:Italy probably has the least to care about this whole discussion. It is true that IR make good early allies, since they both border A and T, but generally it will be awhile (till 1902 or 1903) before the two of them can really fully interact. As such, it's usually other factors (besides what happens in Sweden in 1901) that make or break the Italian game. But, generally, if Italy is allied with Austria, then it's still a tough call. I would probably lean towards letting him in, which lets Russia set up a nice southern line, allowing Turkey to stagnate and AI to drop the hammer on him (usually supported attacks to Bul and Aeg in S02). If allied with Russia, then clearly he should be let in, and in the uncommon IT alliance, Italy should lobby for the bounce. TURKEY:Usually a pretty easy call. If Turkey is in Bla and Arm, then of course he wants a bounce, as mentioned under Austria above. If Turkey is aiming for the Juggernaught (RT), then generally he's going to want to have Germany let him in, though not always. I don't want to get into a discussion as to whether an RT alliance favors Turkey or Russia, but it's a fact that Russia soloes more than any other country, and one of the reasons certainly is his ability to succeed in many different avenues of expansion. So if Russia is succeeding in the Balkans/Austria as well as taking a bunch of northern centers, then Turkey (along with the rest of the board) needs to watch out for a potential Russian solo. GERMANY:So that brings us back to Germany. If you thought that at the end of this article you'd see a recommendation pro or con, you need to go back to Diplomacy school. Very rarely are things ever that cut and dry. But the point is that Germany needs to be thinking about all this even before Spring moves. For those of you looking for a recommendation, I will say that unless you have a stronly compelling reason not to, Germany should probably order F Kie-Den in spring. At least that way you have the option of bouncing should you choose to. Germany not only has to consider what the other powers are telling him, but why they might be telling him that. For example, is France suggesting a bounce because he really thinks that's the best plan for your FG alliance? Or is it because he's really in bed with England and wants you to alienate the Tsar? These are the kinds of things any right-minded Kaiser should consider before ordering his units into action. In conclusion, Germany and Russia are probably the two countries that care the most about Sweden in 1901, but they should not be the ONLY countries that care. Every country on the board, to one degree or another, should be trying to influence this decision. Not to mention that it's never too late to start a cross-board alliance with an eye to the mid-game.
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