How many different sets of opening orders are there? Such a set of orders must specify a legal movement, support, or hold for each of the 22 units on the board. (Convoys are of course impossible in Spring 1901.) You must consider all possible movements including stupid ones like moving Smy-Syr or Lon-Yor with Edi-Yor. However, you should only count supports which are not void. That is to say, the supported unit must be ordered to do what is supported to do. Furthermore, only count useful supports. That is to say, only count supports which are given by a country "A" for himself or for a country "B" which in theory could prevent the success of the move or hold by a country "C" distinct from "A" and "B".
I have calculated the number of opening moves, and the the number of opening moves suggested in The Gamer's Guide to Diplomacy. In order to forestall Daniel Loeb's next quiz, I have also calculated the number of possible orders for a typical Fall 1901 position, and the number in the sample game at the Spring 1904 positions in The Gamer's Guide. Please take these numbers as approximate; it's very likely that I have made errors.
I have counted all possible orders, even orders such as:
The number of opening moves are 1.84*10^22. If one use the suggested moves in The Gamer's Guide, the possible opening moves there are 46656. In the typical situation at Fall 1901 there are 4.93*10^35 possibilities, and in the sample game at Spring 1904 there are 6.92*10^44 possible sets of orders. In the "typical" position at Spring 1902 the positons were: (Belgium is still a neutral supply center.)
Austria A Tri Vie Bud Ser F Gre England A Nwy F Edi Nwg Nth France A Par Bur Por Mar F Spa(sc) Germany A Ruh Den Mun F Hol Kie Italy A Ven Tun F Nap Ion Russia A StP War Ukr Sev F Swe Rum Turkey A Bul Ank F Con SmyIn these situations the convoy possibilities are rather limited. They are the main reason why the number increases so much. With more fleets on the water, the number will raise considerable. As an example, in the sample game there are 63 different legal orders for the fleet in MAO.
In chess there are most often less than ten "good" moves. In Diplomacy, there are many more, often thousands of them. The problem of writing a program is then quite different and much more difficult than chess, even when one uses parallellism as Michael Hall suggested, and a great challenge indeed.
First we must count for each unit the number of neighbors it has and could move to. Obviously, besides supporting, a unit can move to one of these spaces or it could hold. The asterisks in the table below indicate units which can offer "useful" supports in Spring, 1901.
Number of Neighbors
Edi Lvp Lon Bre Par Mar Ven Rom Nap Tri Vie Bud
4 4 4 4 4* 5* 6* 4 3 3 5* 5*
Con Smy Ank Mun Kie Ber Sev Mos War StP/sc
3 4* 3* 7* 3 4* 3 5 6 3
Next we must consider the map and determine which are the "useful"
supports to which I was referring. (Again, units which can offer these
are distinguished by an asterisk in the table above.) The only "useful"
support on nation can
give another, you will note, is that any of Austria, Italy, and Germany
can support a second to prevent the third from taking Tyrolia. In
fact, it is possible for two of these countries to so support the
third!
Useful triples:
country units dest
France: Par,Mar Bur
Germany: Mun,Ber Sil
Turkey: Smy,Ank Arm
Austria: Vie,Bud Gal
Vie,Bud Tri
G+A+I: Vie,Mun,Ven Tyr
Thus, answer is the following product:
+----------- number of moves
| +--------- HOLD order
| | +------ number of units for which this is true
| | | +-- "useful" support orders
| | | |
V V V V
ANSWER = (3+1)^6 (Nap, Tri, Con, Kie, Sev, StP) 4096
x (4+1)^5 (Edi, Lpl, Lon, Bre, Rom) 3125
x (5+1)^1 (Mos) 6
x (6+1)^1 (War) 7
x ((4+1)^1 (Par)
x (5+1)^1 (Mar)
+ 2) (Par S Mar-Bur, Mar S Par-Bur) 32
x ((4+1)^1 (Smy)
x (3+1)^1 (Ank)
+ 2) (Smy S Ank-Arm, Ank S Amy-Arm) 22
x A (Mun, Ber, Vie, Bud, Ven) 13174
Where A is the number of possible combinations for Munich, Berlin,
Vienna, Budapest, and Venice. We break up A into the possibility that
Vie and Bud support each other to Gal or Tri, and if Mun and Ber
support.
(4 (Vie*Bud) 4
x ((6+1) (Ven)
x (7+1) (Mun)
+ 2) (Ven S Mun-Tyr, Mun S Ven-Tyr) x 58
x (4+1)) Ber x 5 = 1160
------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ (4 (Vie*Bud) + 4
x (6+1) (Ven) x 7
x 2) (Mun S Ber-Sil, Ber S Mun-Sil) x 2 = 56
------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ ((5+1) (Bud) + 6
x 2 (Mun S Ber-Sil, Ber S Mun-Sil) x 2
x ((5+1) (Vie)
x (6+1) (Ven)
+ 2) (Vie S Ven-Tyr, Ven S Vie-Tyr) x 44 = 528
------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ ((5+1) (Bud) + 6
x (4+1) (Ber) x 5
x ((5+1) (Vie)
x (6+1) (Mun)
x (7+1) (Ber)
+ 2(5+1)
+ 2(6+1)
+ 2(7+1)
+ 3) x 381 = 11430
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A = TOTAL OF SUMS = 13174
Thus, the final answer is 4,985,969,049,600,000. At a rate of 1 game
per person in the world per minute, it would take about 2 years to try
every possible Diplomacy opening!
While transcribing Mr. Green's solution for re-publication, I (Manus Hand, Publisher of The Diplomatic Pouch), corrected a number of errors, changed the notation used, and took into account Danny Loeb's comments describing the openings which were missed by Mr. Green. To quote Danny Loeb's comments on Green's original solution, "In your list of openings, you don't count, for example, the possibility of Turkey supporting Russia to Armenia, and himself moving to Armenia. This is clearly different from just moving to Armenia, or not moving to Armenia. (Same goes for France and Germany in Burgundy [and Germany and Russia in Silesia and Austria and Russia in Galicia --Manus].) Such a set of orders could be used by someone who definitely didn't want Armenia empty (for some strange psychological reason). Perhaps the problem is exactly in defining what a set of distinct orders is?"
Indeed, even after my own updates, what appears below does not consider, for example, A CON-ANK, A SMY-ARM, F ANK S A SMY-ARM to be a separate opening from A CON HOLD, A SMY-ARM, F ANK S A SMY-ARM. That is, bounce moves having no effect are considered useless (indeed, they are, tactically, and thus this answer fits Danny Loeb's problem description -- diplomatically, of course, is another story).
Therefore, what appears below is not a faithful reproduction of Green's solution published in EP #265, but rather a corrected and updated solution based on the work begun by Mr. Green. With no further ado, here it is.
Okay, here goes. The notation I'm using should be self-explanatory. Parenthesized orders mean that (given the other units' moves) the orders(s) specified within parentheses would not be distinct from one of the other possible openings for that country. As per always, I invite you to check my math and correct me if I did anything wrong.
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR AUSTRIA-HUNGARY
Order F Tri A Bud A Vie
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Alb -Gal -Tyr
C -Ven -Rum -Gal
D -Adr -Tri -Bud
E -Vie -Tri
F -Ser -Boh
G S Vie-Gal S Bud-Gal
H S Vie-Tri S Bud-Tri
I S War-Gal S Ven-Tyr
J S Mun-Tyr
K S War-Gal
F Tri A Bud A Vie Total
----- ----- ----- -----
A A ABCHIJ 6
B ABCDFGIJK 9
CF ABCDFIJ 14
E BCF 3
ABCD GI C 8
BD D ABCDEFHIJ 18
BCD A ABCEFIJ 21
B ABCDEFGIJK 30
CF ABCDEFIJ 48
E BCEF 12
H E 3
C D ABCDFIJ 7
-----
Total distinct openings for Austria-Hungary: 179
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR ENGLAND
Order A Lvp F Edi F Lon
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Cly -Cly -Yor
C -Edi -Nwg -Nth
D -Yor -Nth -Wal
E -Wal -Yor -Eng
A Lvp F Edi F Lon Total
----- ----- ----- -----
A ABC ABCDE 15
B AC ABCDE 10
C BC ABCDE 10
D ABC ACDE 12
D ADE 3
E ABC ABCE 12
D ABE 3
E ACE 3
ABC D ABDE 12
E ACDE 12
-----
Total distinct openings for England: 92
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR FRANCE
Order F Bre A Mar A Par
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Mid -Bur -Pic
C -Pic -Gas -Bur
D -Gas -Spa -Gas
E -Eng -Pie -Bre
F S Par-Bur S Mar-Bur
G S Mun-Bur S Mun-Bur
F Bre A Mar A Par Total
----- ----- ----- -----
A ADE ABCE 12
B ABCDFG 6
C ABDF 4
BE ADE ABCDE 30
B ABCDEFG 14
C ABCE 8
C ADE ACDE 12
B ACDEFG 6
D ACE 3
D ADE ABCE 12
B ABCEFG 6
ABCDE FG C 10
-----
Total distinct openings for France: 123
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR GERMANY
Order F Kie A Ber A Mun
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Ber -Pru -Kie
C -Hol -Sil -Ber
D -Hel -Mun -Sil
E -Den -Kie -Boh
F -Bal S Mun-Sil -Tyr
G S War-Sil -Bur
H -Ruh
I S Ber-Sil
J S Vie-Tyr
K S Ven-Tyr
L S Mar-Bur
M S Par-Bur
N S War-Sil
F Kie A Ber A Mun Total
----- ----- ----- -----
A A ADEFGHJKLM 10
B ACDEFGHJKLM 11
C ACDEFGHIJKLMN 13
D DEFGH 5
B B ABDEFGHJKLM 11
C ABDEFGHIJKLMN 13
CDEF A ADEFGHJKLM(B) 40
B ABCDEFGHJKLM 48
C ABCDEFGHIJKLMN 56
D CDEFGHJKLM(A) 40
ACDEF FG D 10
BCDEF D BDEFGH 30
-----
Total distinct openings for Germany: 287
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR ITALY
Order F Nap A Rom A Ven
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Apu -Tus -Pie
C -Ion -Ven -Apu
D -Rom -Apu -Rom
E -Tys -Nap -Tus
F -Tyr
G -Tri
H S Mun-Tyr
I S Vie-Tyr
J S Vie-Tri
K S Bud-Tri
F Nap A Rom A Ven Total
----- ----- ----- -----
B A ABFGHIJK(E) 8
B ABDFGHIJK 9
C BEFG 4
E ABDEFGHIJK 10
CE E ABCDEFGHIJK 22
D B ABCFGHIJK 9
D ABEFGHIJK 9
ACE A ABCFGHIJK(E) 27
B ABCDFGHIJK 30
D ABDEFGHIJK 30
ACDE C BCEFG 20
-----
Total distinct openings for Italy: 178
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR RUSSIA
Order F Sev F StP/sc A Mos A War
----- ----- -------- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Arm -Lvn -StP -Lvn
C -Bla -Bot -Sev -Mos
D -Rum -Fin -Ukr -Ukr
E S Ank-Arm -War -Gal
F S Smy-Arm -Lvn -Pru
G -Sil
H S Bud-Gal
I S Vie-Gal
J S Mun-Sil
K S Ber-Sil
F Sev F StP/sc A Mos A War Total
----- -------- ----- ----- -----
ABCDEF ACD A AEFGHIJK(BD) 116
D BCEFGHIJK(A) 134
E BDEFG 90
F CDEFGHIJK(A) 134
B A AEFGHIJK(D) 48
B ACDEFGHIJK 60
D CEFGHIJK(A) 48
E CDEF 24
CD B ABCDEFGHIJK 132
BCD ACD C ABCDEFGHIJK 99
B C ACDEFGHIJK 30
-----
Total distinct openings for Russia: 915
DISTINCT OPENINGS FOR TURKEY
Order A Con F Ank A Smy
----- ----- ----- -----
A HOLD HOLD HOLD
B -Bul -Con -Con
C -Ank -Bla -Ank
D -Smy -Arm -Arm
E S Smy-Arm -Syr
F S Sev-Arm S Ank-Arm
G S Sev-Arm
A Con F Ank A Smy Total
----- ----- ----- -----
A A ADE 3
C ADE(C) 3
D ADEFG(C) 5
ABD EF D 6
B A ABDE 4
B ACDE 4
C ABCDE 5
D ABCDEFG 7
C C BE(A) 2
D BEF(A) 3
D A DE 2
BC CDE 6
D CDEFG 5
-----
Total distinct openings for Turkey: 55
TOTAL DISTINCT OPENINGS
Austria-Hungary 179
England 92
France 123
Germany 287
Italy 178
Russia 915
Turkey 55
---------------------------
Total 5 207 528 463 013 800
Note that Trevor Green's published answer was, like Danny Loeb's, over four
quadrillion. After correcting errors, however (for example, he had counted
999 distinct Russian openings), I reached a total of only 338,171,034,482,560
(338 trillion). Only after adding the openings described by Danny Loeb
(ANK S SEV-ARM, SMY-ARM, etc.) did the total jump
to this figure over five quadrillion.
Notice that all self-bounces (such as Mar-Gas with Par-Gas) are already discounted. So all that are left to remove are situations like the following:
Lon-ENG with Bre-ENG Sev-BLA with Ank-BLA Ven-Pie with Mar-Pie Mun-Bur with Par-Bur and without Mar S Mun-Bur and Mar S Par-Bur Mun-Bur with Mar-Bur and without Par S Mun-Bur and Par S Mar-Bur Par-Bur with Mar-Bur and without Mun S Par-Bur and Mun S Mar-Bur Sev-Arm with Ank-Arm and without Smy S Sev-Arm and Smy S Ank-Arm Sev-Arm with Smy-Arm and without Ank S Sev-Arm and Ank S Ank-Arm Ank-Arm with Smy-Arm and without Sev S Ank-Arm and Sev S Ank-Arm -etc.-Unfortunately, the situation around Tyrolia makes determining all the situations in which there is any bounce out of this province very difficult. For example, some of these situations are:
Ven-Tyr with Vie-Tyr and without Mun S Ven-Tyr or Mun S Vie-Tyr Ven-Tyr with Vie S Ven-Tyr and Mun-Tyr -etc.-We could, in this way, go through and describe all situations resulting in bounces, but it would seem more straightforward to attack this problem anew. We must then determine the possible ending locations for each of the 22 units and then remove those which have two (or more) units in the same location.
And here is where I take the professor's cop-out and say, "Determining the final solution from this beginning is left as an exercise for the reader." We'll have a contest. First one to send in the correct, documented answer will win a free lifetime subscription to The Pouch!